The reason I've done this is to promote discussions about the draft.
The ADP, (Average Draft Position), is
taken from a website called The National Baseball Fantasy Leagues, and
is a hardcore money$ for play and cash$ payout fantasy site. The
reason we use their ADP is that if your gonna plop down $250 or $500
for a fantasy league, you probably have done a little research and
would draft to get the most value from your picks.
The NBFL as of Feb 1st, has had just
under 10,000 drafts, and that should easily be a large enough sample
size to get an adequate accurate average for the drafting position
number associated for each player.
Mike Trout went #1 in 98% of all the
drafts and has an ADP of 1.06.
The ADP list goes from #1, Trout to
#850, Brad Peacock, ADP of 774.12
For this exercise we have eliminated
all the players on our teams already and worked with only the drafted
players for this year. There were 112 players drafted in the top 850
ADP, of the 126 picked in our draft. I ranked them 1-112 and gave the
14 without ranking a 119, halfway from 112 to 126. This is not close to a perfect solution for this comparison.
But I'm gonna use it anyway to equate
some subjective value onto our draft. Its a stretch at best.
And the circumstances for any pick can be misleading when compared to
the ADP.
The example; The Lizards picked Devinsky at #9, and was
given a -65, because the ADP ranked him
#74. Did the Lizards make a bad pick? No, and the reason is
very clear. The Lizards made a guess that the Sultans would pick a
reliever at #16, (I talked to the Lizards GM after the draft), and
knowing the Sultans penchant for control and every one's longing for
top relief with plenty innings, the Lizards thought the Sultans would
grab Devinski A*Z+V(50inn) at #16. So a sound and thoughtful pick
Devinski became at #9. Add in the Lizards lack of A* relief, and this
pick is a good pick, ADP be damned. The same or similar arguments can
be made for many of the picks the ADP rates as being questionable,
(large negative ADP ratings).
So when looking at a team with negative
points or a pick with a large negative ADP ranking, you need to look
at the team and the needs of the team and the circumstances with our
game and play, before drawing any conclusions. Certain picks can be
pointed out as questionable, or favorable to a team, on an individual
basis, while at other times a group, like relievers, and when they
were picked, may have an ADP relationship with the question, Why? Or,
What were they thinking?
Values and their possible meanings
31+ Could be a real steal
15 - 30 The player should have gone 1 or 2 rounds earlier.
-14 - 14 These are in the ballpark, right where they should have been taken
-30 - -15 Players that maybe were drafted 1 or 2 rounds to early
-31 or worse, Players that were either drafted to that team, for a specific reason, or taken way to early.
Bottom line, What does all this mean? Nothing. The ADP is looking for future value in the upcoming
season, and has nothing to do with our replacement draft.
So lets begin.....
