The Year to Year Comparison Blog

Why a blog? Because I love this subject and love to write about it. For me it goes to the heart of the APBA replay theory and speaks volumes on how we conduct our league.

This is meant for all league members to participate in, not just me rambling on, (I'll still do that any way), on the things I find very exciting.

The Numbers will be up top, the Comments below, and I'll try to organize it into categories so some one may easily browse down the sheet until they get to where they want to be.

Remember, this is not a true comparison to the MLB averages to get our league numbers exactly like theirs, but a study in our year to year changes and how our rules affect those numbers, with the MLB averages as a baseline, since that is what all the cards are based from.***

Why did I choose 2012 as a starting point? It was the last year of a long stretch that the league used 10 solid teams each season. It was the year before the current expansion to 14 solid teams in 2013

Red - negative, Black - positive, Bold - difference from previous year + / -

The year-to-year comparisons

	2012	2011		2013	2012			2014	2013		2015	2014
	SCBL	MLB	%	SCBL	MLB	%		SCBL	MLB	%	SCBL	MLB	%

Runs	4.217	4.283	-1.55	4.371	4.324	1.09	Runs	4.380	4.166	5.14	4.105	4.066	0.97	Runs
Hits	7.942	8.700	-8.72	8.442	8.655	-2.46	Hits	8.655	8.657	-0.03	8.344	8.559	-2.51	Hits
2B	1.823	1.729	5.42	1.783	1.700	4.87	2B	1.855	1.691	9.68	1.895	1.674	13.16	2B
3B	0.194	0.185	4.98	0.234	0.191	22.75	3B	0.173	0.159	8.96	0.193	0.175	10.50	3B
HR	1.285	0.937	37.09	1.235	1.015	21.64	HR	1.195	0.959	24.68	1.076	0.861	24.89	HR
SF				0.185	0.252	-26.67	SF	0.206	0.251	-17.92	0.230	0.263	-12.62	SF
Sac				0.181	0.304	-40.67	Sac	0.141	0.284	-50.42	0.161	0.276	-41.63	Sac
HB	0.293	0.320	-8.45	0.268	0.307	-12.74	HB	0.294	0.316	-6.80	0.440	0.340	29.33	HB
BB	2.755	3.091	-10.89	2.822	3.027	-6.75	BB	2.683	3.011	-10.91	2.457	2.885	-14.81	BB
K	7.564	7.099	6.55	7.529	7.495	0.45	K	7.531	7.550	-0.26	7.926	7.704	2.88	K
SB	0.785	0.675	16.23	0.799	0.664	20.29	SB	0.703	0.554	26.95	0.725	0.569	27.54	SB
CS	0.198	0.260	-23.87	0.206	0.234	-11.72	CS	0.217	0.207	4.99	0.226	0.213	6.21	CS
DP				0.581	0.744	-21.88	DP	0.605	0.768	-21.23	0.593	0.743	-20.19	DP
E	0.410	0.628	-34.84	0.675	0.619	9.12	E	0.550	0.565	-2.65	0.511	0.600	-14.77	E

2015 Month-to-Month comparisons to the 2014 MLB averages.

March

April

May

June

July

August

SCBL

Runs

3.774

-7.19

3.854

-5.21

Runs

4.063

-0.06

4.121

1.34

Runs

4.139

1.80

4.120

1.33

Runs

Hits

8.238

-3.75

8.214

-4.02

Hits

8.304

-2.98

8.374

-2.16

Hits

8.406

-1.78

8.355

-2.38

Hits

1.887

12.70

1.866

11.46

1.944

16.14

1.920

14.65

1.923

14.83

1.928

15.13

0.161

-8.00

0.182

3.92

0.179

2.22

0.201

15.00

0.192

9.72

0.194

11.31

0.994

15.41

1.033

19.90

1.054

22.32

1.064

23.53

1.085

25.91

1.075

24.85

0.202

-22.98

0.190

-27.51

0.248

-5.61

0.246

-6.55

0.248

-5.76

0.242

-7.88

Sac

0.101

-63.38

0.104

-62.30

Sac

0.139

-49.74

0.147

-46.69

Sac

0.161

-41.84

0.158

-42.92

Sac

0.351

3.32

0.411

20.83

0.454

33.67

0.432

26.96

0.437

28.53

0.442

30.17

2.440

-15.40

2.399

-16.85

2.431

-15.75

2.414

-16.33

2.463

-14.62

2.450

-15.06

7.631

-0.95

7.807

1.33

7.833

1.68

7.909

2.67

7.838

1.74

7.908

2.65

0.702

23.50

0.685

20.36

0.675

18.62

0.683

20.10

0.713

25.39

0.711

25.07

0.208

-2.17

0.232

9.01

0.236

10.87

0.266

25.08

0.233

9.57

0.228

7.14

0.613

-17.44

0.571

-23.05

0.601

-19.04

0.591

-20.44

0.592

-20.32

0.574

-22.65

0.476

-20.58

0.533

-11.15

0.518

-13.63

0.531

-11.40

0.507

-15.42

0.504

-15.95

Year to Year comments

10/1/15

2012 was the 1st year of the "-" pitcher ratings, see how in 2013, and then in 2014 the % on Hits increased as we got used to this change and did a better job reporting the results,

(just like the SF's).

Only Stolen Bases and Double Plays are a statistical-margin-of-error-out-o-whack, compared to the MLB averages.

Unless we deduce that we have and use the top base stealers, then Stolen Bases are not out of proportion at all.

Double plays is up for grabs. Firstly I never hear any one complaining that there are not enough Double Plays. And Secondly, we do not always pick the best fielders, many times

the better hitter with a marginal defensive number will get the nod for more playing time. It seems to be a Managers choice on what he wants in the heat of battle.

But this can only partially explain why we are so low at a consistent -21 to -22 % And I pose the question no one wants to hear, Do we raise DP's?

And if we did how would it affect our total Runs?

Home Runs at a rate of 25% above the MLB average seems high. But is it? I dont think so. It is more a comment on how WE build teams. We covet Home Run power.

Lowering this total could affect many other categories. Total Runs or Hits and BA, if we turn some to outs and doubles would go higher if we turned them into 2 baggers.

Every time we tinker or tweak could mean many unforseen consequences. Be careful of what you wish for... APBA has a good system already in place, their Basic Game.

Walks show a decline from '13 to '14 and '15. This will be remedied, (I hope), with our new 60% Z+ rule.

We will have a sliding scale on Z+ pitchers that matches ABPA and their sliding scale for Z pitchers.

With the runs, hits and mostly strike outs totals virtually matching the MLB averages, I conclude that our League is a microcosm within the base set of cards that ABPA produces.

Strike outs has its own completely ABPA system, and we pick the better players and pitchers, and match the MLB averages year after year.

Others may draw different conclusions, but I like to think despite that we are a All-Star League, the competition between good player and good hitter cancels itself out

and we can use the MLB averages as a base for all aspects of rules and play within our league. In other words its a great starting point and monitoring it should be a vital tool

in keeping our league as simple, yet accurate as possible.

9/15/15

Although I am no longer involved with this league it intrigues me to check the website and see where the league is heading and to also check on the progress of old friends. I can understand how you and the people you have brought into the league were used to playing with the master game. And I applaud your efforts to make the statistics of the SCBL be comparable to the averages of Major League Baseball. However, the SCBL is an all star league and not all players are used. The rules that modified the league the past few years have indirectly handicapped some players while enhancing others.

Now the members of the SCBL may appreciate all the modifications that have allowed the statistics to match closer to that of Major League Baseball. I, however, saw the beginning of the end for me once the main objective became matching the statistics of the SCBL to that of Major League Baseball. Because in all reality, trying to match the average statistics of the SCBL to that of Major League Baseball without using all players is a farce. The "new" rules took a simple league and turned it into a complex one. Life away from the SCBL has enough complexity and stress. I, for one, enjoyed the simplicity of the SCBL and welcomed the chance to get away from the everyday complexity of life. Once this league no longer offered that break from the everyday hustle I knew it was time to go.

Now I know this email is more like me butting into business that is no longer my concern. However, I am rooting for this league to continue on for many years to come. It is amazing how long it has existed so far. However, I believe that if the main focus and objective continues to be what you are so proud of according to the opening page of the website, additional complexity may take the fun out of it for more members, thus, jeopardizing the SCBL. You have done wonders and are a valuable asset to the SCBL. But this one thing you have focused so hard on took the fun out and killed it for me. Get back to focusing on the competition this league has to offer and stop focusing on the farce of trying to match the numbers of Major League Baseball. Thank you and take care.

Ken Lopez
Former member of the SCBL

10/1/15

Ken is a respected, long-time member of the SCBL and I am very happy to have him as my first respondent. I do disagree on a couple of points he has made, but that's what open communication is all about. And even though he is not a current member, his input here will never be construed as "butting in....", but taken as it should, concerned criticism for the benefit of the League. I have already addressed some of the issues that Ken talks about in my preamble. But it will be you, the SCBL member to take in all the information possible, then decide how you want to proceed with each season and within the League. I hope this blog helps.

The only issue I'll take up with Ken is on the newer rules making the League more complicated. I believe I see exactly what he's on about, but I see a double edged sword at play.

Yes, some of the newer rules have made things more complicated, but I think it has given us, as a league, more managerial options. The more options, without game play time sacrifices we have,

the more each Manager can mold his team to be exactly what he wants. This, in my opinion, can strengthen the League, because now each Manager can be unique in his vision of what his team make-up can be.

My big example is PRN #23, with bases empty; it used to be a CF-3, Flyout or you had an error, E-8, and a man on 1st. This one result left little for a manager to think about, an OF-3 must play CF.

Even if its his only OF-3, he was locked in at CF, due to this one board result. Our new rule, to keep the boards up to date, with the current boards that ABPA issues resolved this, and now a 3 outfielder

can play anywhere the Manager decides, without the burden of a mandatory spot for, what might be, his only 3 outfielder on the club. This example does not directly respond to Ken's complaint,

but is a perfect example on how more options, rather than a mindless board dictated one, can give a Manager the freedom to use his players, to what he thinks is, in the team's best interest.

10/27/15

As I browse the web, I remembered that there are a multitude of other ABPA replay and All-star leagues out there. I have visited 9 so far. ALL of them are All-star Leagues like ours. All have less teams than MLB,

and ALL play a different amount of games. I am focusing on Basic Leagues only. The most was DVAL and the TCBL which both have 24 teams, playing 162 games. The least number of teams was 8 for...I cant remember

But anyway, there were several that had 12 and 16 team leagues, playing anywhere from half season, like ours, to a full schedule of 162 games.

They ALL had stats for 2014, only we had stats, complete for 2015 as I write this. So 2014 will do... and the results are amazing. The SCBL is usually the leaders in accurate stats compared to MLB. Our fielding were easily the best and the closest to the Majors at -2.35%, with the Trans-continental Baseball League being the worst at a -24.1% , they use a similar modified defensive charts that allows better fielders to always be, in ALL

base situations, better than the defenses below them, as we used to until 2011. They also use a defensive random chart which I'm sure throws the results off also, as we did too.

But in all catagories, each league mirrors the majors for most of their results, unless like fielding, they on purpose mess things up.

Same number of runs per game, hits, HB's, strikeouts, walks, SB's just like ours, and then it dawns on me.

We CAN be measured up against the Majors and their totals, we are, as it seems all leagues are, a Microcosm of MLB. As each League also has the same basic problems we do with power, the smaller the league,

the greater the power is concentrated and the per game doubles, triples and Homeruns go up, but the total number of extra base hits for the league stays consistent to the Major League totals. Just like our totals.

Do I want to make our league exactly as the Majors, now that I know we could strive to be exactly like them.... NO, that is not what I want, I still want to use the Majors stats as a base, and compare our ups and downs

each season to the rules that we passed, but I do NOT want to alter anything that we do not need to fix.

Our 2014 boards got real close to the Majors and I find nothing we should change. Except all the changes we tried in 2015 that resulted in us wavering from better results.

Those should be changed back, and we do have NOW a really good, really accurate game.

Month to Month comments

10/1/15

Why a Month-to-Month set of numbers? Because I love to see the evolution, and stabilization of the numbers in the current year.

Notice how some things stay the same, BB for example, March right out of the chute -15%, and in August, -15%.

See in March, Sacrifices were hardly even done at a rate of -63%, oh the optimism of new cards.

Then by August we Sac'd at a -43% rate, a 20% increase, as our runs scored climbed up from -7.19% to a positive 1.33% in the same span of months.

Board Changes

2014

Last season Sacrifice Flies were added to the boards, and we have improved our SF rate, and reporting, to go from -26.67% below the MLB average to -7.88% in just 2 seasons.

Conclusion; The new rule worked.

Do the Sac flies need to go higher? probably, because we use the big RBI guys in our League, and we should probably be above the MLB average. Should we change things,

by adding more Sac Flies to the boards -- NO. Leave it be, we tweaked, it worked, we are good !

2015

This season we had 2 major Board changes, A&C and A&B relief pitchers and the #22 with bases empty.

The #22, seems to have failed badly, raising the total number of hit-by-pitches from -6.80% below the MLB average last year to a positive 30.17% over the MLB average this year.

A gain of over 35%. In going overboard on HB, we also lost some hits and errors, that might have kept those numbers closer to where they were last season.

This Board change, with out a doubt, should be revoked and the 2014 #22 should be reinstated. (Sorry Mike D. it had practicality, but the numbers don't lie.)

The A&C and A&B pitcher changes can be interpreted in 2 ways. #1, there is no statistical difference, from 2014 Home Run levels to 2015.

And the change to an ABPA based system can be called a success. #2 The increase in Doubles favors the old system,

as there would have probably, not been as dramatic an increase between 2014's +9.68% and 2015's +15.13% above the MLB average.

But the old system has to go hand in hand with Home Runs, which has not gone up dramatically, so what conclusions can be drawn.

I favor, the resulted difference in Doubles as what it should be, as the expansion teams mature, more players will be used thru out the League with Double power,

since all the Home Run power is already used within the League. Concluding that since Runs are almost dead on at only a +1.80% increase over the MLB average this season,

the old system, can be left behind because it makes no statistical difference in the final outcomes.